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NOVEMBER 3, 2026 · QUALIFIED FOR BALLOT
38
PROPOSITION 38

Immunology research bonds

Official title: AUTHORIZES BONDS FOR IMMUNOLOGY MEDICAL RESEARCH. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

PROPOSED-LAW INTRODUCTION · OFFICIAL TEXT

This initiative measure is submitted to the people in accordance with the provisions of Section 8 of Article II of the California Constitution. This initiative measure adds sections to the Health and Safety Code; therefore, new provisions proposed to be added are printed in italic type to indicate that they are new.

Sections addressed: Health and Safety Code, Division 110.5, §§130350–130384; act §7. The PDF can include adjacent propositions; locate the Proposition 38 heading. Strikeouts show existing language being deleted, not new requirements.

Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Read the proposed law ↗Assessment researched October 9, 2026
Human review pendingAI-assisted research preview. Sources, uncertainty, and unresolved checks are shown for your review. This is not a vote recommendation.
01 / AT A GLANCE

What would change?

Authorizes $8.4 billion in general-obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research. The research allocation is divided between one qualifying nonprofit institute and competitive grants to eligible council-represented universities and nonprofits. Discovery, treatment access, and financial returns are uncertain.

Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Health and Safety Code, Division 110.5, §§130350–130384; act §7 ↗
A YES VOTE

Authorize the bonds, research funding structure, and new oversight framework.

A NO VOTE

Do not authorize these bonds or establish this research program.

NONPARTISAN FISCAL ANALYSIS · ESTIMATE

The LAO estimates roughly $500 million to $600 million annually for about 20 years to repay bonds. Research returns and future health-program savings or costs could offset or add to costs, with substantial uncertainty.

Read the LAO analysis and assumptions ↗
02 / PUBLIC FUNDS & AUTHORITY

Where money goes.
Who controls it.

Public funding and campaign donations are separate. Where this measure creates no new funding pool, the table explains the budget authority or restriction instead.

Allocation, permitted uses, and decision-making authority
Use or ruleAllocation or limitWho controls it
Single nonprofit institute50% of distributable research funds after authorized bond costs; the institute must meet detailed statutory criteria.CDPH selects the institute and enters its funding agreement. The measure does not simply name a guaranteed recipient.
Competitive research grantsOther 50% goes to eligible council-represented universities and nonprofits. At least $2.1 billion from each funding path is reserved for cancer, heart disease, and Alzheimer’s research combined.Research council reviews projects; CDPH enters agreements.
Administration and overheadState administration capped at 2%, excluding certain bond-law costs. Grant indirect costs generally capped at 20%, with a matching-funds exception permitting an increase.CDPH, council, grantees, and state bond authorities under the specified rules.
Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Health and Safety Code, Division 110.5, §§130350–130384; act §7 ↗

Flexibility, exceptions, and possible diversion

The institute and grant recipients choose projects within broad research purposes. Authorized overhead, issuance costs, and debt-related transactions mean all bond dollars do not buy direct laboratory work. §130363 exempts the institute from public-agency status, including ordinary public-records and open-meeting rules; the council has modified conflict rules and recusal requirements. The act allows two-thirds legislative amendments for its purposes but restricts changing eligible funding allocations. These are transparency limits and express exceptions, not proof of improper spending.

Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Allocation and exception provisions ↗

Oversight and accountability limits

Annual reports and independent financial audits cover the institute and council; council audits also include a random 10% of grantees. The Controller reviews audits and issues public reports. A citizens’ oversight committee meets publicly. Discovery-revenue and treatment-discount provisions have conditions; they do not guarantee cures or repayment of the bonds.

Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Oversight and permitted uses ↗

No actual expenditure inconsistent with this proposed law has been established here. Authorized administration, exceptions, or legal-defense costs are disclosed separately from headline benefits. Future appropriations, transfers, contracts, waivers, and audit findings must be checked before calling an expenditure misuse.

03 / POTENTIAL EFFECTS

Who may benefit.
Who may bear costs.

These are Ballot Lens interpretations of the law’s mechanisms and fiscal analysis. Actual effects depend on implementation and behavior.

Possible long-term benefit

Patients and families

Research could produce treatments; success, affordability, and timing cannot be guaranteed.

Direct funding opportunity

Selected institute and eligible researchers

One institute receives a large share, while other eligible institutions compete for grants.

Debt burden and opportunity cost

California taxpayers and other service users

General-obligation repayment draws on state resources that could support other purposes; future returns are uncertain.

Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Health and Safety Code, Division 110.5, §§130350–130384; act §7 ↗LAO fiscal effects and uncertainty ↗
04 / DOCUMENTED POSITIONS

Support and opposition.

Supporters listed in the official guide: Michael J. Fox Foundation; Alzheimer’s Los Angeles; Kidney Cancer Assoc; American Nurses Assoc\CA.

Opponents listed in the official guide: Robert M Kaplan Ph.D..

“None submitted” describes that guide field. It does not establish the absence of supporters, opponents, campaigns, or contributions. An endorsement, argument signature, and donation are distinct evidence.

Official supporter and opponent listing ↗
ARGUMENT IN FAVOR · SUMMARY

Argue that research investment could produce lifesaving treatments and includes financial accountability.

Submitted authors: Susan Disney Lord; Eugene P. Brandon; Brian Shuch.

ARGUMENT AGAINST · SUMMARY

Argues that borrowing is costly and that a fragmented research structure is less effective than coordinated funding.

Submitted authors: Robert M. Kaplan.

Complete submitted arguments and rebuttals

The official submissions appear below, as the authors’ opinions. Their claims are not verified by the state. An individual’s affiliation does not by itself establish an organizational endorsement.

Open complete official arguments and rebuttals ↗
05 / EVIDENCE CHECK

Check competing claims.

Claim or common interpretationEvidence and limits
All money goes directly to research with overhead limited to 2%.The 2% cap concerns state administration; grants can include 20% indirect costs with an exception, and certain bond costs are separate.
Audit requirements mean all institutions’ records are public.Annual audits and public reports exist, but the institute is exempt from ordinary public-agency disclosure rules.
Proposition 38 · Initiative 25-0026A1 · Health and Safety Code, Division 110.5, §§130350–130384; act §7 ↗LAO analysis ↗

These checks explain comparisons and qualifications; they are not a truth score for every campaign assertion.

06 / CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATION

Messages and emotional appeals.

Messages are attributed to the linked campaign or official submission. Emotional appeals are Ballot Lens interpretations of persuasion techniques, not findings about motives.

FOR

Invest in discoveries that could save patients and families.

Emotional appeals: Hope, patient stories, compassion, and fear of devastating disease.

Reviewed basis: Campaign homepage and official argument.

For campaign website ↗
AGAINST

Prioritize sustainable, coordinated research funding.

Emotional appeals: Concern about debt and inefficient institutional arrangements.

Reviewed basis: Official argument; no against-campaign website is listed.

Official campaign links in the Quick Guide ↗
07 / CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Who funds the campaigns?

Power Search contribution records through Oct 9, 2026 · 26 reconciled records · retrieved Oct 11, 2026. These are receipts, not expenditures or public-program allocations.

Support contributions in this search$51,215,472.42
Opposition contributions in this search$3,781.64
Explore Proposition 38 donor profiles and transactions →

Supporting and opposing committees: who they are

A recipient committee raises or receives funds for political activity and files public reports. A primarily formed ballot-measure committee campaigns for or against a particular measure; other committees can have wider purposes. Names and reported positions do not establish a complete membership list or every named group’s endorsement.

Sources, dates, and coverage

Contribution source date: Oct 9, 2026. Retrieved Oct 11, 2026. Official search total reconciled against all 26 returned contribution rows.

Committee names, status, and linked officers are matched to the official bulk tables. That confirms identity records; original financial filings and amendment histories have not been reconciled. Donor profiles without a disclosed ID are grouped by reported name, state, employer, and occupation; matching reported fields can combine different people, and changes in those fields can split one donor across profiles.

Contributions from allied committees are excluded by the source search. Independent spending, campaign expenditures, and transfer tracing are not imported yet. Missing spending is unavailable, rather than $0. A contribution is evidence of reported funding, not proof of motive or an endorsement. Contributions to multi-measure committees cannot be added across measures as unique dollars.

Power Search measure-associated receipts and Quick Guide adjusted primarily formed committee totals use different coverage. A zero in one source is not proof of no spending. Multi-measure committee totals must not be added across propositions.

08 / ORIGINS & INTERACTIONS

Who proposed it?
How does it connect?

The Attorney General identifies Gary K. Michelson as proponent. This initiative statute qualified through petition signatures.

Initiative 25-0026A1 · official origin record ↗

Qualified for California’s November 3, 2026 ballot; not yet approved by voters. Proponents, legislative authors, endorsers, argument signatories, and committee officers have different roles.

Official qualified measure list ↗

Related measures

Compare the General Fund debt obligation with Proposition 1’s bonds and Proposition 37’s revenue bonds. Their repayment mechanisms differ.

09 / SOURCES & LIMITS

Ready for your review.

All assessments remain research drafts awaiting human editorial review. The following measure-specific items need attention:

  • Verify which institute meets the selection criteria and any statutory fallback selection before identifying the beneficiary by name.
  • Review conflict exceptions, grant overhead, and discovery-revenue contracts.

Across all measures, original finance filings and amendments, expenditures, indirect funding, litigation, and actual spending compliance remain outside the verified dataset. Predictions are conditional. This assessment does not certify future conduct.

Source retrieval dates and fingerprints

Fingerprints identify the bytes used in this research; they do not prove that a source’s claims are accurate.

38/index.htm ↗

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38/analysis.htm ↗

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38/arguments-rebuttals.htm ↗

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2026-11-03/38 ↗

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pdf/prop38-text-proposed-laws.pdf ↗

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initiatives/search?combine=25-0026A1 ↗

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For campaign ↗

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